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MVP Predictor Model
Predicting The 2011 MVP
September 30, 2011
Tyson Lowery
SimDynasty.com
Over the years, the MVP formula in Sim Dynasty's baseball simulation has been a sticking point for many users. As with real life baseball awards, many team owners have debated or questioned the simulation's selection of the MVP winner.
A few years back, we took a fresh look at our MVP formula. You can see the results of that in this story. We did a follow up each of the last 2 years when we examined the 2009 race and 2010 race, predicting all 4 winners correctly. The goal of Sim Dynasty's MVP formula is to award a league MVP using the same set of criteria that the writers use when voting for the MLB MVPs. The current formula in use has correctly picked 27 of the past 32 MVP winners. We have not found another method that can predict the winners more accurately. If you know of one, please let us know!
Let's take a look at how the 2011 races shape up based on our formula.
National League
It looks like a two horse race between Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp. Since the Gold Glove winners have not yet been announced, and this is one component in our model, we will assume that Kemp wins the Gold Glove this year. If the Dodgers had been a good team this year, perhaps winning 88 games or so but still missing the playoffs, our model would give the award to Kemp. He had the best offensive season of any contender. But alas, MVP voters usually care what the team did. Braun picks up some points based on the Brewers finishing in first and making a leap from last season. Voters tend to like players on teams that improved from the previous season. We're also surprised that Lance Berkman isn't getting more MVP attention. He was a new player for the Cardinals this year, which voters tend to like. The Cardinals were also involved in a tight battle for the playoffs, which voters also tend to like. It will be interesting to see how many votes Berkman receives.
American League
First things first, our prediction model does not consider pitchers. Could Justin Verlander win the MVP this year? We don't think so. Typically, when pitchers have won the MVP it has been when nobody cracks 1400 points in our model. It is interesting that he is getting so much support, and this may hurt Miguel Cabrera's case. Cabrera did have that DUI in the offseason, perhaps he's been branded a bad guy and this will hurt him in the vote. This seems somewhat similar to the 1995 MVP race where voters tried to manufacture reasons not to vote for Albert Belle, saying the Indians were too far ahead in the race and the games had no pressure. People seem to be trying to find a way to justify voting for a pitcher, perhaps because subconsciously they can't get their heads around Cabrera as MVP.
Let's talk about Jose Bautista. He's certainly had a great season on a poor team. The performance of the Blue Jays should hurt him in the vote, and a lot has been written on the internet about this. But even if you remove all the team related aspects of the model, Cabrera still finishes nearly 100 points ahead of Bautista and ahead of everyone else too (just like he did last year). Bautista has a slightly higher OPS (1.055 to 1.033), but Cabrera had more hits (197 to 155). Voters tend to like hits more than walks, even if Billy Beane and Jonah Hill don't care. He also played in 161 games, verses Bautista's 149, which resulted in 33 more plate appearances. The main takeaway here is that Cabrera had at least as good of an offensive season as Bautista, if not better. Add in the fact that the Tigers made the playoffs, and the MVP award should be his.
Our model is making the assumption that Adrian Gonzalez will not win the Gold Glove. It is somewhat uncommon for a player who is new to the league to win the Gold Glove in his first season. But if he wins the Gold Glove, our model says that would be enough for him to take home the MVP as well. The problem is that our model doesn't take into account the historic collapse of the Red Sox. After the way in which the Red Sox fell short of the playoffs, we just don't see how one of their players could win the MVP.
Sim Dynasty Baseball is an online, simulated baseball game. You act as the GM and Manager of a baseball franchise and direct all aspects of that franchise, such as drafting, trades, lineups, in-game manager preferences, grooming minor leaguers, and much more. The game is free to try, sign up today at www.simdynasty.com.
September 30, 2011
Tyson Lowery
SimDynasty.com
Over the years, the MVP formula in Sim Dynasty's baseball simulation has been a sticking point for many users. As with real life baseball awards, many team owners have debated or questioned the simulation's selection of the MVP winner.
A few years back, we took a fresh look at our MVP formula. You can see the results of that in this story. We did a follow up each of the last 2 years when we examined the 2009 race and 2010 race, predicting all 4 winners correctly. The goal of Sim Dynasty's MVP formula is to award a league MVP using the same set of criteria that the writers use when voting for the MLB MVPs. The current formula in use has correctly picked 27 of the past 32 MVP winners. We have not found another method that can predict the winners more accurately. If you know of one, please let us know!
Let's take a look at how the 2011 races shape up based on our formula.
National League
| Place | Player | Points |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | 1450 |
| 2 | Matt Kemp | 1423 |
| 3 | Prince Fielder | 1350 |
| 4 | Lance Berkman | 1348 |
| 5 | Albert Pujols | 1242 |
| 6 | Justin Upton | 1194 |
| 7 | Troy Tulowitzki | 1034 |
It looks like a two horse race between Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp. Since the Gold Glove winners have not yet been announced, and this is one component in our model, we will assume that Kemp wins the Gold Glove this year. If the Dodgers had been a good team this year, perhaps winning 88 games or so but still missing the playoffs, our model would give the award to Kemp. He had the best offensive season of any contender. But alas, MVP voters usually care what the team did. Braun picks up some points based on the Brewers finishing in first and making a leap from last season. Voters tend to like players on teams that improved from the previous season. We're also surprised that Lance Berkman isn't getting more MVP attention. He was a new player for the Cardinals this year, which voters tend to like. The Cardinals were also involved in a tight battle for the playoffs, which voters also tend to like. It will be interesting to see how many votes Berkman receives.
American League
| Place | Player | Points |
| 1 | Miguel Cabrera | 1567 |
| 2 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1526 |
| 3 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 1408 |
| 4 | Curtis Granderson | 1259 |
| 5 | Jose Bautista | 1246 |
| 6 | Dustin Pedroia | 1165 |
| 7 | Adrian Beltre | 1126 |
First things first, our prediction model does not consider pitchers. Could Justin Verlander win the MVP this year? We don't think so. Typically, when pitchers have won the MVP it has been when nobody cracks 1400 points in our model. It is interesting that he is getting so much support, and this may hurt Miguel Cabrera's case. Cabrera did have that DUI in the offseason, perhaps he's been branded a bad guy and this will hurt him in the vote. This seems somewhat similar to the 1995 MVP race where voters tried to manufacture reasons not to vote for Albert Belle, saying the Indians were too far ahead in the race and the games had no pressure. People seem to be trying to find a way to justify voting for a pitcher, perhaps because subconsciously they can't get their heads around Cabrera as MVP.
Let's talk about Jose Bautista. He's certainly had a great season on a poor team. The performance of the Blue Jays should hurt him in the vote, and a lot has been written on the internet about this. But even if you remove all the team related aspects of the model, Cabrera still finishes nearly 100 points ahead of Bautista and ahead of everyone else too (just like he did last year). Bautista has a slightly higher OPS (1.055 to 1.033), but Cabrera had more hits (197 to 155). Voters tend to like hits more than walks, even if Billy Beane and Jonah Hill don't care. He also played in 161 games, verses Bautista's 149, which resulted in 33 more plate appearances. The main takeaway here is that Cabrera had at least as good of an offensive season as Bautista, if not better. Add in the fact that the Tigers made the playoffs, and the MVP award should be his.
Our model is making the assumption that Adrian Gonzalez will not win the Gold Glove. It is somewhat uncommon for a player who is new to the league to win the Gold Glove in his first season. But if he wins the Gold Glove, our model says that would be enough for him to take home the MVP as well. The problem is that our model doesn't take into account the historic collapse of the Red Sox. After the way in which the Red Sox fell short of the playoffs, we just don't see how one of their players could win the MVP.
Sim Dynasty Baseball is an online, simulated baseball game. You act as the GM and Manager of a baseball franchise and direct all aspects of that franchise, such as drafting, trades, lineups, in-game manager preferences, grooming minor leaguers, and much more. The game is free to try, sign up today at www.simdynasty.com.